THE FADING OF THE OIL ECONOMY


Opinion Piece
Natural Gas can't replace cheap oil



Summary: We instinctively imagine that 'they' will invent something to replace cheap oil. Or other power sources will be expanded to take over the role. What about hydroelectric power? Isn't it cheap, non-polluting, and can't it be used to split the water molecule into oxygen and hydrogen gas, with the hydrogen gas being used in fuel cells for vehicles?

Natural gas doesn't cut it. Here is a table, using data from BP Amoco's 'Statistical review of world energy 2000'.
I have rounded the figures up or down to the nearest whole number.
 

 COUNTRY
Oil 
consumption
(Million tonnes p.a.)
Natural Gas consumption 
(in Million tonnes of oil equivalent p.a.)
Multiples of the existing gas consumption needed  to replace 50% of current oil consumption
(rounded)
   USA
882
555
0.8 x
  CANADA
83
64
0.6 x
  BRAZIL
83
6
7 x
  FRANCE
96
34
1.5 x
  GERMANY
132
72
1 x
  SWITZERLAND
13
2
3 x
  UNITED KINGDOM
79
83
0.5 x
 FORMER USSR
182
482
0.1 x
  SOUTH AFRICA
22
-
-
  CHINA
200
19
5 x
  INDIA
95
21
2 x
  JAPAN
259
67
2 x
  AUSTRALIA
38
18
1 x
  NEW ZEALAND
6
4
0.8 x

Some countries, such as Japan and France, are significant gas consumers and yet  don't have their own gas reserves. Yet their consumption would have to be doubled or trebled to replace even half their existing oil use. This increase can only come from imports of other countries reserves. When that happens, the life of the 'donor' countries reserves goes down.

 COUNTRY
NATURAL GAS RESERVES
(in Million tonnes of oil equivalent p.a.)
USING GAS TO REPLACE 50% OF CURRENT OIL USE
YEARS RESERVES WILL LAST
   USA
4 133
4 years
  CANADA
1 608
15 years
  BRAZIL
204
4 years
  FRANCE
0
0
  GERMANY
302
2 years
  SWITZERLAND
0
0
  UNITED KINGDOM
675
5 years
  FORMER USSR
 50 400
 88 years
  SOUTH AFRICA
0
0
  CHINA
1 217
 10 years
  INDIA
520
8 years
  JAPAN
0
0
  AUSTRALIA
1 120
30 years
  NEW ZEALAND
63
-
 IRAN
 20 444
 255 years
 QUATAR
 7 546
no data 
 UNITED ARAB EM.
 5 333
 144 years
 SAUDI ARABIA
 5 146
 71 years
 ALGERIA
4 017 
 164 years
 VENEZUELA
 3 591
 90 years
 NIGERIA
 3 120
 no data
 IRAQ
2 764
no data
TOTAL WORLD gas RESERVES
(million tonnes oil equivalent)
CURRENT WORLD ANNUAL gas CONSUMPTION
(million tonnes oil equivalent)
YEARS RESERVES WILL LAST
AT CURRENT RATE OF USE 
YEARS RESERVES WILL LAST
USING GAS TO REPLACE 50% OF CURRENT WORLD OIL USE
130 160
2 064
 63 years
34 years

Proven natural gas reserves roughly equal crude oil in total energy content. But the rate of consumption is very high, although not quite as high as the oil consumption rate (gas is being used up at about two thirds of the rate oil is being used up). So when people point to the huge gas reserves, what they are really saying is that they are unaware how fast the reserves are being used, and unaware that increasing the rate of use will bring the depletion point forward to within 30 or 40 years or so.

When the oil price goes to $US48 a barrel and stays there, as it obviously will, it will become economic to make synthetic petroleum from natural gas. But, first, it will be hugely expensive by definition, and second, competition for the gas reserves will have pushed the price of gas up to the point where the economics of making the huge capital investments aren't there until a much higher oil cost than $US48 per barrel.
 
In addition, natural gas has to be made liquid for transport. LNG, natural gas in its liquid form, is primarily methane (other hydrocarbons and gases such as nitrogen boil off in liquification), which must be cooled to minus 259 degrees Fahrenheit (-161 degrees Celsius) to become liquid. Special ships are needed - basically huge floating thermos flasks - to keep the gas liquid in transport.

At 2003 there were about 136 such ships, transporting 120 million metric tonnes of gas a year. If the USA, for example, powered half the vehicles on US roads with gas (and used gas for no other purpose, including power generation), it would deplete its own reserves within 4 years. After that, even if all the existing LNG transporters in the world travelled only to USA, they still couldn't shift gas fast enough to supply gas to all who wanted it for their auto.

Even West Eurasia (Europe), physically much closer to major to major gas fields, would need new gas supplies to be transported long distances in significantly large capacity pipelines; such pipelines which don't yet exist. In theory, gas could be piped to West Eurasia overland from Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran, and the Middle East; perhaps even Algeria in North Africa.

In fact, there is competition for where a pipeline should go. There is competition from East Eurasia (China) and from Asia (India) for the gas and for placing the pipelines advantageously to their needs. The route of the pipeline must be through some of the most unstable (partly due to big country power plays), corrupt, and impoverished countries in the Eurasian continent.

West Eurasia does have the huge advantage of being able to import liquid natural gas by sea the short distance from the Middle East fields to West Eurasia via the Suez canal. Nigerian gas is also close at hand by sea. The limiting factor will be, once again, insufficient LNG tankers, and limited gas terminals.

A further limit will be straight economics. Terminals are hugely expensive to build. The up-front capital cost must be amortised over the life of the facility, with a margin for profit added. The feasible economic life of a terminal importing gas for motive power is unlikely to be much more than 30 years. The gasification of coal may extend this; but coal may largely be 'bespoken' to fuel plants making electricity. Due to the uncertainties inherant in both supply of gas for the facility and the longer term shape of the demand as oil economies enter a recession without end might make investors reluctant to bet their money.


© Copyright 2001 UHIS


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