Summary: We instinctively imagine that 'they' will invent something to replace cheap oil. Or other power sources will be expanded to take over the role. What about hydroelectric power? Isn't it cheap, non-polluting, and can't it be used to split the water molecule into oxygen and hydrogen gas, with the hydrogen gas being used in fuel cells for vehicles?
Natural gas doesn't cut it. Here is a table, using data from BP
Amoco's
'Statistical review of world energy 2000'.
I have rounded the figures up or down to the nearest whole number.
|
consumption (Million tonnes p.a.) |
(in Million tonnes of oil equivalent p.a.) |
(rounded) |
USA |
|
|
|
CANADA |
|
|
|
BRAZIL |
|
|
|
FRANCE |
|
|
|
GERMANY |
|
|
|
SWITZERLAND |
|
|
|
UNITED KINGDOM |
|
|
|
FORMER USSR |
|
|
|
SOUTH AFRICA |
|
|
|
CHINA |
|
|
|
INDIA |
|
|
|
JAPAN |
|
|
|
AUSTRALIA |
|
|
|
NEW ZEALAND |
|
|
|
Some countries, such as Japan and France, are significant gas consumers and yet don't have their own gas reserves. Yet their consumption would have to be doubled or trebled to replace even half their existing oil use. This increase can only come from imports of other countries reserves. When that happens, the life of the 'donor' countries reserves goes down.
|
(in Million tonnes of oil equivalent p.a.) |
YEARS RESERVES WILL LAST |
USA |
|
|
CANADA |
|
|
BRAZIL |
|
|
FRANCE |
|
|
GERMANY |
|
|
SWITZERLAND |
|
|
UNITED KINGDOM |
|
|
FORMER USSR |
|
|
SOUTH AFRICA |
|
|
CHINA |
|
|
INDIA |
|
|
JAPAN |
|
|
AUSTRALIA |
|
|
NEW ZEALAND |
|
|
IRAN |
|
|
QUATAR |
|
|
UNITED ARAB EM. |
|
|
SAUDI ARABIA |
|
|
ALGERIA |
|
|
VENEZUELA |
|
|
NIGERIA |
|
|
IRAQ |
|
|
(million tonnes oil equivalent) |
(million tonnes oil equivalent) |
AT CURRENT RATE OF USE |
USING GAS TO REPLACE 50% OF CURRENT WORLD OIL USE |
|
|
|
|
When the oil price goes to $US48 a barrel and stays there, as it
obviously
will, it will become economic to make synthetic petroleum from natural
gas. But, first, it will be hugely expensive by definition, and second,
competition for the gas reserves will have pushed the price of gas up
to
the point where the economics of making the huge capital investments
aren't
there until a much higher oil cost than $US48 per barrel.
In addition, natural gas has to be made liquid for transport. LNG,
natural gas in its liquid form, is primarily methane (other
hydrocarbons
and gases such as nitrogen boil off in liquification), which must be
cooled
to minus 259 degrees Fahrenheit (-161 degrees Celsius) to become
liquid.
Special ships are needed - basically huge floating thermos flasks - to
keep the gas liquid in transport.
At 2003 there were about 136 such ships,
transporting 120 million metric tonnes of gas a year. If the USA, for
example,
powered half the vehicles on US roads with gas (and used gas for no
other
purpose, including power generation), it would deplete its own reserves
within 4 years. After that, even if all the existing LNG
transporters in
the world travelled only to USA, they still couldn't shift gas
fast
enough to supply gas to all who wanted it for their auto.
Even West Eurasia (Europe), physically much closer to major to major
gas fields, would need new gas supplies to be transported long
distances
in significantly large capacity pipelines; such pipelines which don't
yet exist. In theory, gas could be
piped to West Eurasia overland from Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran, and the
Middle East; perhaps even Algeria in North Africa.
In fact, there is competition for where a pipeline should go. There
is competition from East Eurasia (China) and from Asia (India) for the
gas and for placing the pipelines advantageously to their needs. The
route of the pipeline must be through some of the most unstable (partly
due to big country power plays), corrupt, and impoverished countries in
the Eurasian continent.
West Eurasia does have the huge advantage of being able to import
liquid natural gas by sea the short distance from the Middle East
fields to West Eurasia via the Suez canal. Nigerian gas is also close
at hand by sea. The limiting factor will be, once again, insufficient
LNG tankers, and limited gas terminals.
Any action you take after reading the material here is soley your responsibility - seek advice from others, read critically and widely, don't accept everything you read here. You have been warned! Question everything.
Form your own opinion on these matters after reading widely and consulting appropriate professional advice.